Friday, November 7, 2008

Four Interesting Things About the Election

1. Only 22% of America's counties voted more Republican in this election than in 2004. Where were they? Primarily in Appalachia, northern Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana and eastern Oklahoma. As one commentator put it: "Obviously concerned about marginal tax rates for those earning over $250,000 a year, I suppose." Heh. This was the Palin base, the rural rump at whom all the coded crypto-racism was aimed. It worked, but thankfully for only a sliver of the American electorate. Evidence, I guess, that the old Confederacy has retained its dunces.

2. Bush won Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia in 2004 by an aggregate 1 million votes. Obama won them in 2008 by relatively narrow margins. But he flipped roughly 10% of the electorate to do it. Huge.

3. Obama won New Mexico by 15%, Nevada by 12%, and Colorado by 8%. Hispanics moved Democratic nationwide by 25% points. This is really, really bad news for the Republicans, given US demographics. I predict that Texas may be the motherlode swing state in the 2032 election.

4. While the idiot mainstream media went all self-congratulatory about the civil rights implications of the Obama victory, and while it was moving to see the election through the lens of slavery and the African-American experience, I thought this was the best summary of how I saw the election:
"But relief today is not about Americans choosing an obviously black man over a white man, which proves we can come to terms with our past. It is about our choosing an obviously brilliant, reciprocal man over a thick, cynical one--a man who articulates a coherent vision of global commonwealth over someone advancing vague, military patriotism--which proves we can come to terms with our future."

Sunday, November 2, 2008

Prediction Time

Election is Tuesday, for those of you who live off the grid. At this point, the biggest unknown is the youth turnout. Early voting patterns have firmly established the fact that the Dems in general and African-Americans in particular are motivated to deliver a large turnout. Probably augurs a large Republican turnout as well. Here's my prediction for the outcome:

Electoral Vote: O:338, M:200 (Obama wins Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada; loses North Carolina, Indiana and Missouri; no second-tier swing states like Georgia, Arizona, North Dakota or Montana swing blue).

Popular Vote: O:51.7%, M:47.3%, others 1%

Senate: Dems: 57 seats not including Leiberman and the socialist dude.

Upside Scenario: Obama wins popular vote 53% to 46%, wins electoral vote 375 to 163, with Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina going blue and no other states swinging. Insane (and kind of irrational) Upside Scenario: Obama wins popular vote 54% to 44%, wins electoral vote 406 to 132, picks up Georgia, North Dakota, Montana and Arizona, and has near-miss in one of the southern states like Louisiana, Mississippi, or South Carolina.

Downside Scenario: McCain loses popular vote but wins electoral vote 273 to 265, with Obama trading Pennsylvania for Virginia and McCain running the table in every swing state. More Likely Downside Scenario: Obama wins popular vote 50.5% to 48.5%, wins electoral vote 306 to 232 by holding Pennsylvania, Ohio and Virginia.

State to Watch: Indiana.  Polls close early, so we'll see some data before other swing states. High early voting (450K through Halloween -- 10% of registered voters and in some counties 3X 2004 early voting turnout). We should therefore get a sense of general election turnout and demographics that could be a preview for other states where we've seen similar early voting patterns (North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, Florida, etc.).  If Obama is close or leading in Indiana with most precincts reporting, he's going to have a big night. If McCain blows him out by 5%+, this will be a nail-biter.

Trend to Watch: Pundits over-valuing early voting results. To the extent these early votes are reported before election day votes, you may see sizable Obama leads that evaporate as the night wears on -- in Louisiana, Georgia, and other states. North Carolina may look like a blowout (Obama +8%) when polls close, and may end up with <1% popular vote separation at the end of the day.

Friday, October 31, 2008

Right Where We Want 'Em

Heh. Obama is launching ads in Arizona, Georgia and North Dakota. Now, these are some motherfucking red states. While recent polling suggests all of these states are marginally competitive, I don't expect Obama thinks he can win in these states. I agree with Nate Silver -- this is primarily a media strategy designed to demoralize the McCain campaign. It's like the burning of Atlanta in the Civil War.

I love McCain campaign manager Rick Davis' take in a memo to journalists tonight, characterizing the move as: "an attempt to widen the playing field and find his 270 Electoral Votes. This is a very tall order and trying to expand into new states in the final hours shows he doesn't have the votes to win." What? The fact that these states are competitive rather than absolutely blood red at this point is somehow bad for Obama?

McCain's silly "we got 'em right where we want 'em" nonsense made me think of this:


Thursday, October 30, 2008

Infomercial

I thought the Obama infomercial was pretty boring. In his effort to be substantive and to reach out to the few undecideds or soft republicans, he purposefully swung away from his lofty rhetoric into a mundane articulation of policy. Frankly, I think we could have used a jolt of his preachifying at this point -- we've seen enough policy on the stump. And the cut-away to him live at the end was totally anti-climactic.

But consider this: he did not mention Bush or McCain once during the 30 minutes. Never said, "Don't vote for him because ..." or "... failed policies of ..." Only talked about what he wanted to do. The future. Again, you may think he's the anti-christ, but the dude looked presidential.

Can you imagine McCain's 30 minutes in prime time?  Here's Juan Cole's take:
... if I had to guess, it would be ten minutes about McCain as a POW, ten minutes of McCain saying he isn’t Bush, and then ten minutes of bullshit smears about Ayers, Khalidi, socialism, celebrity, and maybe Rick Davis could go before the cameras and pull a tire gauge out of his ass. 

Cranky Asshole Update

As this most entertaining election cycle comes to a conclusion, I went back and read my Six Reasons post and felt I should update it with what I've learned in the eight weeks since I first wrote it.

I believe we've learned a lot about McCain's character and his fitness to govern from watching his campaign. And I think what we have learned is not positive, and leads me to conclude even more strongly that a vote for this man is not just a mistake, but an indictment of the voter's intelligence and powers of observation.

McCain's whole campaign has been about character. He really has not offered more than a crumb of policy discussion in the last several months. To the extent he has discussed them, his economic policies are incoherent -- like a moron reciting Ronald Reagan's talking points without really understanding the underlying issues (gee, kind of like every Sarah Palin interview, come to think of it).

What have we seen of McCain's "character"? We've seen a despicable, angry, name-calling jerk. He's an embarrassment to the American political culture. He's called his opponent a terrorist sympathizer (and doesn't object when others forget the "sympathizer" part and call Obama an actual terrorist); he's called him every 20th century name for commie that he can think of (socialist, marxist, redistributionist); he's called him naive, disloyal, dangerous, duplicitous, a Manchurian candidate, a fey academic, you name it. Pathetic.

This is McCain's character. A sense of senatorial entitlement and complete contempt for the American people as intelligent, cautious and independent-minded. Just yell a bunch of 1950's buzzwords and get them to vote with their emotions. The problem for the old bastard is that it ain't the 1950's any more.

And, once and for all, fuck John McCain's "service to our country" narrative (which, by way of reminder, was primarily as a POW in Vietnam; not exactly George Washington or Andrew Jackson or Ike territory, folks). If that's a reason to vote for him, we are a bunch of cretins. Any honor he accrued in Vietnam has been squandered in the sordid pathos of this campaign (and, before that, in the sordid personal history he accumulated post-war). He has absolutely no claim to being a viable commander in chief because of his captivity in Vietnam. It's completely idiotic.

More troubling even than the character issue is what we've learned about his fitness to govern. I'm not even going to get into the Palin pick -- all that needs to be said has been said better, by others. But back in August I wrote that he "surrounds himself with mediocre people" and the Palin pick is no exception. He has no interest in policy -- at a time of insane fragility of the American system of government and economy, this is reason enough not to vote for him. I believe he is clinically bi-polar, and I can't imagine a worse mental disorder to have in a president. He doesn't listen to anyone but himself. He's a compulsive gambler. The fatigue of the campaign trail has made him seem increasingly senile (his attempt to remember the 5th secretary of state who endoresed him on NBC was scary/pathetic). And he is going to die soon, perhaps very soon, leaving a potential power vacuum that defies historical comparison.

McCain is totally unfit to lead this nation. He really is George W. Bush with a little more gravitas -- dumb, narcissistic, mean-spirited, petty, anti-intellectual. We really don't need more of that shit.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

HipLogic

HipLogic, one of the companies I invested in earlier this year, launched their platform today. Here's the video:



The conventional wisdom around Sand Hill Road is that the whole world will be running iPhones or Android phones in a couple of months, but as long-time readers know, I don't really buy that. In my conversations with carriers and handset manufacturers, they are looking for increased data services across their range of handsets, and the impending recession only makes that more urgent, as smartphone sales have fallen off in Europe and likely in the US as well.

The goals of the HipLogic platform are infinite personalization of the mobile experience, easy discovery of data services, and always-on connectivity. I think it's the right technology for the time.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

And You Wonder ...

... why I believe we need not simply defeat these American Taliban -- we need to sow their fields with salt for a generation. Take a listen to this, all you jews, muslims, non-evangelical christians, city-dwellers, free-thinkers, etc.  



After a week during which we heard Palin call us anti-American by implication, some unhinged Minnesota congresswoman call for a McCarthyesque pogrom against the un-American members of congress, a McCain flack suggest northern Virginia isn't real because it isn't "southern" (code for conservative and xenophobic, oh, I mean "patriotic"), and the rising spectre of a Reverend Wright attack on Obama's patriotism, don't you think it's time we stopped viewing these people as simply ignorant and pathetic, and started viewing them as a threat to our democracy?

[UPDATE] Mea culpa. Leave it to the master ...