Benchmark Capital has announced an investment in Meteor Entertainment, the publishing company that will bring the amazing mech shooter Hawken to market, together with Adhesive Studios, later this year.
This is going to be fun. First, I get to work with a remarkable new talent, Khang Le, and his team at Adhesive Studios in LA. I discovered Adhesive the same way everybody else did -- through their YouTube gameplay demo for Hawken. My brother sent me a link along with a simple message: "Find these guys!" I've been looking at games for 20 years and Hawken is one of the most astonishing things I've ever seen.
Second, I get to work with my good friend Mark Long. I first met Mark early in his career in the video game business, when he had just started Zombie in Seattle. Mark is a pro's pro, and I was honored that he agreed to come on as our CEO at Meteor. He not only brings recent experience creating free-to-play games, but also a deep understanding of the marketing power of transmedia. Mark is an accomplished graphic novelist (Shrapnel, The Silence of Our Friends) and has worked closely with Brian Grazer's Imagine Entertainment developing leading-edge film and television concepts.
Third, I get to join Meteor's board along side Rick Heitzmann from FirstMark Capital in New York. Rick and I were the Series A investors in another well-known free-to-play company, Riot Games, a startup studio that had a monster, worldwide hit with their first title, League of Legends. Riot was acquired by the Chinese internet giant Tencent early last year. Rick and I had a great experience together on the Riot board and have been looking for something interesting to do together ever since. I can't think of a better project than this to reunite the team.
Free-to-play is the future of core gaming. Every month we hear the dire reports from the front lines of the packaged goods business, with sales off 10-30% year over year, a trend that we've seen continue unabated for the last couple of years. The packaged goods business is undergoing the disruption that we've witnessed in many other media businesses (music, newspapers, TV) as the internet, free-to-play models, and micro-transactions erode the traditional brands, retail bundles, and price points. This is a huge opportunity -- perhaps up to $8 billion of core revenue is at stake in this migration to free-to-play/virtual goods in the next few years.
If the other media businesses are any guide, this will happen fast. Some of the incumbents, like EA and Valve appear to understand what's happening and are taking action, but the opportunity is enormous for new entrants built from scratch for free-to-play design and publishing. Riot was able to come out of nowhere and, with a single great title and a deep commitment to customer service, reach over 35 million players around the world (and growing), while generating outsized revenues and profits. They did this without the "reach" of the incumbent publishers, without access to their distribution channels, and without their massive conventional marketing budgets. That was simply not possible in the past.
I think Meteor has a great chance to build a really big business in this space, and that's why we invested. I look forward to getting to work with this great team to make it happen.
Monday, February 27, 2012
Saturday, February 5, 2011
Riot Games & Tencent
As was widely reported yesterday, the Chinese internet giant Tencent has agreed to acquire a majority of the capital stock of Los Angeles-based Riot Games, a Benchmark portfolio company. The transaction is a huge validation of Riot's meteoric rise to prominence in the online game business. CEO Brandon Beck, his co-founder Marc Merrill and the team at Riot have executed their business plan brilliantly, and the Tencent transaction now gives them a global platform to continue to disrupt the video game business for years to come. Congratulations!
For those unfamiliar with the company, Riot develops and publishes high quality, online, session-based games aimed at the core video game audience. The games are free to play; the company makes money by selling virtual goods to enhance the play experience. Riot's first title, "League of Legends," was an instant hit in the US and Europe, and will launch in Asia this year. The game has attracted a passionate audience, and by the strictest measure of video game engagement -- peak concurrency -- only the multi-billion dollar "Call of Duty" franchise does better than LoL among session-based games.
Benchmark Capital was privileged to invest in both Riot's Series A and Series B financing rounds. We were attracted by three key ingredients: the team's maniacal commitment to product quality and user experience; their belief that they could create sustainable customer acquisition advantages by delivering modern, upgraded versions of well-established play patterns (i.e., DotA); and the inherent benefits of the free-to-play, virtual goods business model. It worked like a charm -- the company delivered remarkable usage, revenue and profit growth. Hat's off to the team for executing so well against the opportunity.
One quick word about Tencent. I've been lucky to know the company since before their 2004 IPO (Tencent distributed some games from my last startup, JAMDAT Mobile, in China). I have immense respect and admiration for Pony Ma, Martin Lau and David Wallerstein. They are smart, honorable business people. I could not be prouder to see the combination of these terrific companies, and I look forward to great things from Riot and Tencent in the future.
For those unfamiliar with the company, Riot develops and publishes high quality, online, session-based games aimed at the core video game audience. The games are free to play; the company makes money by selling virtual goods to enhance the play experience. Riot's first title, "League of Legends," was an instant hit in the US and Europe, and will launch in Asia this year. The game has attracted a passionate audience, and by the strictest measure of video game engagement -- peak concurrency -- only the multi-billion dollar "Call of Duty" franchise does better than LoL among session-based games.
Benchmark Capital was privileged to invest in both Riot's Series A and Series B financing rounds. We were attracted by three key ingredients: the team's maniacal commitment to product quality and user experience; their belief that they could create sustainable customer acquisition advantages by delivering modern, upgraded versions of well-established play patterns (i.e., DotA); and the inherent benefits of the free-to-play, virtual goods business model. It worked like a charm -- the company delivered remarkable usage, revenue and profit growth. Hat's off to the team for executing so well against the opportunity.
One quick word about Tencent. I've been lucky to know the company since before their 2004 IPO (Tencent distributed some games from my last startup, JAMDAT Mobile, in China). I have immense respect and admiration for Pony Ma, Martin Lau and David Wallerstein. They are smart, honorable business people. I could not be prouder to see the combination of these terrific companies, and I look forward to great things from Riot and Tencent in the future.
Friday, December 3, 2010
World Cup 2018 & 2022 Bids
Well, the mandarins at FIFA, one of the world's most venal and corrupt bureaucracies, have selected Russia and Qatar, respectively, as the sites for the 2018 and 2022 World Cups.
This would be funny if it wasn't so pathetic and so horribly, shockingly wrong for the sport. Let's just parse this for a minute. First, Russia. As a Spanish diplomat put it in one of the Wikileaks documents, essentially a mafia state. Terrible travel infrastructure. Will need billions of dollars in new stadium construction.
But worst of all for a global football tournament, Russia is home to perhaps the world's most unabashedly racist sports fans. When Dick Advocaat was coaching Zenit St. Petersburg, he was instructed not to even recruit black players; when a half-Russian, half-Nigerian player at Lokomotiv decided to leave for England, the fans unfurled a huge banner thanking his new club for taking him and prominently displaying a banana, their preferred racist slur for their only black player. Several African players in Russia have admitted to carrying guns for self-defense. FIFA, which likes to see itself as the champion of the developing world and in particular Africa, clearly has no problem selling out its "values" to get on the gravy train of some utterly corrupt plutocrats from Moscow. Disgusting.
Then, Qatar. Again, awash in oil money. Ruled by a totally corrupt oligarchy. No concept of women's rights. Long history of essentially enslaving South Asians as guest workers. Hot as fucking hell in summer. Roughly the size of a large US county, with nothing of interest for visitors outside football. Oh, and really no football tradition to speak of. Did I mention the oil money?
Look, arguably Russia ought to get a World Cup at some point, but one would hope as a reward for cleaning up their disgusting club football at a minimum, and perhaps even for cleaning up their actual country. Qatar is perhaps credible as a joint bidder with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who at least have a good football culture and a bigger canvas to paint on. But they are never credible as a sole bidder, absent the massive graft which almost necessarily accompanied their bid.
With 2014 in Brazil and with China a virtual lock for 2026 or 2030, I'm not sure I'll see another Cup in my lifetime in a place with both a great football tradition and great domestic travel and stadium infrastructure. Glad I made it to Germany in 2006. For the good of the next generation of football fans, let's wish Sepp Blatter and his cronies in Geneva a speedy demise.
This would be funny if it wasn't so pathetic and so horribly, shockingly wrong for the sport. Let's just parse this for a minute. First, Russia. As a Spanish diplomat put it in one of the Wikileaks documents, essentially a mafia state. Terrible travel infrastructure. Will need billions of dollars in new stadium construction.
But worst of all for a global football tournament, Russia is home to perhaps the world's most unabashedly racist sports fans. When Dick Advocaat was coaching Zenit St. Petersburg, he was instructed not to even recruit black players; when a half-Russian, half-Nigerian player at Lokomotiv decided to leave for England, the fans unfurled a huge banner thanking his new club for taking him and prominently displaying a banana, their preferred racist slur for their only black player. Several African players in Russia have admitted to carrying guns for self-defense. FIFA, which likes to see itself as the champion of the developing world and in particular Africa, clearly has no problem selling out its "values" to get on the gravy train of some utterly corrupt plutocrats from Moscow. Disgusting.
Then, Qatar. Again, awash in oil money. Ruled by a totally corrupt oligarchy. No concept of women's rights. Long history of essentially enslaving South Asians as guest workers. Hot as fucking hell in summer. Roughly the size of a large US county, with nothing of interest for visitors outside football. Oh, and really no football tradition to speak of. Did I mention the oil money?
Look, arguably Russia ought to get a World Cup at some point, but one would hope as a reward for cleaning up their disgusting club football at a minimum, and perhaps even for cleaning up their actual country. Qatar is perhaps credible as a joint bidder with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who at least have a good football culture and a bigger canvas to paint on. But they are never credible as a sole bidder, absent the massive graft which almost necessarily accompanied their bid.
With 2014 in Brazil and with China a virtual lock for 2026 or 2030, I'm not sure I'll see another Cup in my lifetime in a place with both a great football tradition and great domestic travel and stadium infrastructure. Glad I made it to Germany in 2006. For the good of the next generation of football fans, let's wish Sepp Blatter and his cronies in Geneva a speedy demise.
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
MLS Cup Final
At one point late in the second half of the dreadful MLS Cup Final, with both of these mediocre teams protecting the 1-1 scoreline and heading to extra-time, I was actually tempted to flip over to watch the LA Lakers-Golden State Warriors NBA game, despite the fact that LA was up by 30 at the time. Seemed like it might be more compelling.
It's rare to get to use the words "scintillating" and "final" in the same sentence -- you expect both teams to play cautiously and the nerves to rattle. But, with two exceptions, this was an unwatchable match, between two forgettable teams, played by mostly second-rate players. But don't take my word for it: ESPN's ratings were down 44% year-over-year, and BMO Stadium in Toronto looked, from the camera pans, to be half empty or worse.
From a match perspective, after a mind-numbing first 20 minutes, Colorado had a semi-legitimate penalty appeal when the slow, bull-headed Connor Casey was tripped up, but it was marginal. Then there was a moment of brilliance in the 35th minute from the Colombian David Ferreira, the league's MVP for 2010, who braved an on-rushing keeper to finish an inch-perfect Marvin Chavez cross on the low volley. This was followed by another 20 minutes of poor play and boredom on either side of halftime. Finally, Casey scored a garbage goal to equalize and it looked like the match might come back to life, finally, but things quickly settled and by he 80th minute, I was begging the football gods not to let this horror show go to penalties.
Fittingly, the match was decided in the second half of extra time by an own goal. Macoumba Kandji drove down the right wing for Colorado and aimed a tepid strike at the near post, which the Dallas defender, John George, turned into goal with his knee. Kandji injured himself on the play, so Colorado played the last 12 minutes a man down, and actually those 12 minutes were the best of the match, as Dallas threw everything they had at Colorado, and nearly sent the match to penalties on several occasions.
So, there you have it, two undeserving teams playing for the cup, with the champion scoring a complete garbage goal and an own goal to win the match. Yuck. To add insult to injury, the idiot presenting Connor Casey with the man of the match trophy afterwards called him "Casey Connor." It was a laughable spectacle, and the perfect end to the idiotic MLS playoffs.
Fuck you, Don Garber. If you can't fix this, forget about the casual fans, the core like me are off to watch Kobe and Pau blow out the Warriors.
It's rare to get to use the words "scintillating" and "final" in the same sentence -- you expect both teams to play cautiously and the nerves to rattle. But, with two exceptions, this was an unwatchable match, between two forgettable teams, played by mostly second-rate players. But don't take my word for it: ESPN's ratings were down 44% year-over-year, and BMO Stadium in Toronto looked, from the camera pans, to be half empty or worse.
From a match perspective, after a mind-numbing first 20 minutes, Colorado had a semi-legitimate penalty appeal when the slow, bull-headed Connor Casey was tripped up, but it was marginal. Then there was a moment of brilliance in the 35th minute from the Colombian David Ferreira, the league's MVP for 2010, who braved an on-rushing keeper to finish an inch-perfect Marvin Chavez cross on the low volley. This was followed by another 20 minutes of poor play and boredom on either side of halftime. Finally, Casey scored a garbage goal to equalize and it looked like the match might come back to life, finally, but things quickly settled and by he 80th minute, I was begging the football gods not to let this horror show go to penalties.
Fittingly, the match was decided in the second half of extra time by an own goal. Macoumba Kandji drove down the right wing for Colorado and aimed a tepid strike at the near post, which the Dallas defender, John George, turned into goal with his knee. Kandji injured himself on the play, so Colorado played the last 12 minutes a man down, and actually those 12 minutes were the best of the match, as Dallas threw everything they had at Colorado, and nearly sent the match to penalties on several occasions.
So, there you have it, two undeserving teams playing for the cup, with the champion scoring a complete garbage goal and an own goal to win the match. Yuck. To add insult to injury, the idiot presenting Connor Casey with the man of the match trophy afterwards called him "Casey Connor." It was a laughable spectacle, and the perfect end to the idiotic MLS playoffs.
Fuck you, Don Garber. If you can't fix this, forget about the casual fans, the core like me are off to watch Kobe and Pau blow out the Warriors.
Monday, November 8, 2010
MLS Conference Finals Set
It was a bizarre weekend in the MLS playoffs. With the exception of LA (more on that later), every higher seed lost their first round series. New York Red Bull crashed and burned against San Jose. Columbus went down on penalties to Colorado after a regular time stalemate. And Dallas convincingly held Real Salt Lake to a draw at Rio Tinto, allowing them through on aggregate after their 2-1 win at home last week.
This means that we are guaranteed the presence of either Colorado or San Jose in the MLS Cup Final, the lowest seeds in the playoffs and the #5 and #6 teams in the Western Conference table, respectively. Oh, and one of these teams will be representing the "east." It's a repeat of last year, when 5th position Real Salt Lake made a run through the east to get to the cup final against LA.
I'm sure Don Garber can make an argument why this is good for the fans, but it's hard to see this as anything other than a massive fail for the league. I have nothing against San Jose or Colorado, but neither of them belongs in the MLS cup final. Had the league seeded the playoffs from a single table, you'd have seen #1 LA vs. #8 San Jose, #2 RSL vs. #7 Colorado, #3 New York vs. #6 Seattle, and #4 Dallas vs. #5 Columbus. Tell me that wouldn't have produced a more interesting set of possibilities for the conference and cup finals.
One team didn't succumb to the higher seed curse this weekend, and that was LA Galaxy. Against most predictions, LA didn't park the bus and try to protect the 1-0 lead from the first leg; instead, they attacked Seattle right from the start, and once again used the set piece to tremendous advantage. This seemed to take Seattle somewhat by surprise, and they were on their back foot from the start.
Sigi Schmidt protested the first goal because Beckham was allowed to take his corner from his favored right side (although the replay I saw suggested that was the correct call), but Schmidt's whinging obscures the fact that Seattle conceded four corners in the first 18 minutes, and Beckham was dropping dangerous balls exactly in the same place that Buddle connected. You can't concede multiple free kicks against a team that set a league record with 13 set piece goals in the regular season and expect not to be punished.
The second goal, also off a set piece, was pure training ground as Beckham's sharply curled ball fooled the defenders into letting Gonzalez lose his mark at the near post for a spectacular diving header. Beckham came close again with a free kick just outside the area, and LA had a number of other chances.
The result sets up an LA-Dallas conference final at Home Depot Center next Sunday, and you have to like LA's chances to get through to a second consecutive MLS Cup Final. With either Colorado or San Jose coming out of the other bracket, the winner of next Sunday's contest in Carson has a great chance of lifting the silverware.
This means that we are guaranteed the presence of either Colorado or San Jose in the MLS Cup Final, the lowest seeds in the playoffs and the #5 and #6 teams in the Western Conference table, respectively. Oh, and one of these teams will be representing the "east." It's a repeat of last year, when 5th position Real Salt Lake made a run through the east to get to the cup final against LA.
I'm sure Don Garber can make an argument why this is good for the fans, but it's hard to see this as anything other than a massive fail for the league. I have nothing against San Jose or Colorado, but neither of them belongs in the MLS cup final. Had the league seeded the playoffs from a single table, you'd have seen #1 LA vs. #8 San Jose, #2 RSL vs. #7 Colorado, #3 New York vs. #6 Seattle, and #4 Dallas vs. #5 Columbus. Tell me that wouldn't have produced a more interesting set of possibilities for the conference and cup finals.
One team didn't succumb to the higher seed curse this weekend, and that was LA Galaxy. Against most predictions, LA didn't park the bus and try to protect the 1-0 lead from the first leg; instead, they attacked Seattle right from the start, and once again used the set piece to tremendous advantage. This seemed to take Seattle somewhat by surprise, and they were on their back foot from the start.
Sigi Schmidt protested the first goal because Beckham was allowed to take his corner from his favored right side (although the replay I saw suggested that was the correct call), but Schmidt's whinging obscures the fact that Seattle conceded four corners in the first 18 minutes, and Beckham was dropping dangerous balls exactly in the same place that Buddle connected. You can't concede multiple free kicks against a team that set a league record with 13 set piece goals in the regular season and expect not to be punished.
The second goal, also off a set piece, was pure training ground as Beckham's sharply curled ball fooled the defenders into letting Gonzalez lose his mark at the near post for a spectacular diving header. Beckham came close again with a free kick just outside the area, and LA had a number of other chances.
The result sets up an LA-Dallas conference final at Home Depot Center next Sunday, and you have to like LA's chances to get through to a second consecutive MLS Cup Final. With either Colorado or San Jose coming out of the other bracket, the winner of next Sunday's contest in Carson has a great chance of lifting the silverware.
Monday, November 1, 2010
Seattle Sounders 0:1 Los Angeles Galaxy
So, LA Galaxy went to Seattle, into one of the best (and, for LA, most hostile) atmospheres in the history of MLS playoffs, and came away with a one goal victory. Despite all of the pre-match hype about Seattle's pace, and midfield possession, and wing play, and how hot they were down the stretch, as I predicted, the Galaxy dictated the flow of the match and go back to Home Depot Center in the driver's seat.
Certainly, the LA wing-backs couldn't keep up with Zakuani and Nyassi, but their midfielders cheated back (Donovan and even Beckham were very helpful in defense) and by the end of the match LA were effectively playing a 4-5-1 with sometimes all eleven in their own half clogging up the pitch and frustrating Seattle's offense. Seattle had a couple of meaningful efforts on goal -- Ricketts' reaction save of the Montero header in the first half after injuring his shoulder a few minutes earlier probably saved the match for LA -- but nothing suggested they were prepared to take over the match and win it.
LA on the other hand easily could have won this one 2-0 or even 3-0. The winning goal came from a phenomenal individual effort by Edson Buddle, who chested down a long header about thirty meters from goal, turned, and volleyed a perfect ball to the far post and into the net. It was reminiscent of Clint Dempsey's wonder goal at Craven Cottage for Fulham in the Europa League against Juventus. In addition, Donovan had a rocket from well outside the area that forced a punch save from Kasey Keller; and Juninho just missed wide off a great one touch-pass build up, that showed in a nutshell why LA is so dangerous in post-season play.
All of this makes the pundits' dismissal of LA going into the playoffs even more inexplicable. Christopher Riordan on the majorleaguesoccertalk.com podcast expressed "shock" that people on the internet were still picking LA. He and co-host Richard Farley both picked Seattle, Riordan saying it was an "easy choice" to pick them, predicting a 2-0 first leg. Heh.
A final note on the atmosphere and support for the Sounders in Seattle. It was unbelievable, breathtaking. I've never heard or seen a crowd like that for an MLS match. Beckham reportedly said afterward that it was the first time he felt like he was playing in a European venue in North America. Seattle has the greatest supporters in the league and they showed their spirit in amazing fashion on Sunday night.
Certainly, the LA wing-backs couldn't keep up with Zakuani and Nyassi, but their midfielders cheated back (Donovan and even Beckham were very helpful in defense) and by the end of the match LA were effectively playing a 4-5-1 with sometimes all eleven in their own half clogging up the pitch and frustrating Seattle's offense. Seattle had a couple of meaningful efforts on goal -- Ricketts' reaction save of the Montero header in the first half after injuring his shoulder a few minutes earlier probably saved the match for LA -- but nothing suggested they were prepared to take over the match and win it.
LA on the other hand easily could have won this one 2-0 or even 3-0. The winning goal came from a phenomenal individual effort by Edson Buddle, who chested down a long header about thirty meters from goal, turned, and volleyed a perfect ball to the far post and into the net. It was reminiscent of Clint Dempsey's wonder goal at Craven Cottage for Fulham in the Europa League against Juventus. In addition, Donovan had a rocket from well outside the area that forced a punch save from Kasey Keller; and Juninho just missed wide off a great one touch-pass build up, that showed in a nutshell why LA is so dangerous in post-season play.
All of this makes the pundits' dismissal of LA going into the playoffs even more inexplicable. Christopher Riordan on the majorleaguesoccertalk.com podcast expressed "shock" that people on the internet were still picking LA. He and co-host Richard Farley both picked Seattle, Riordan saying it was an "easy choice" to pick them, predicting a 2-0 first leg. Heh.
A final note on the atmosphere and support for the Sounders in Seattle. It was unbelievable, breathtaking. I've never heard or seen a crowd like that for an MLS match. Beckham reportedly said afterward that it was the first time he felt like he was playing in a European venue in North America. Seattle has the greatest supporters in the league and they showed their spirit in amazing fashion on Sunday night.
Friday, October 8, 2010
MLS Playoffs
With only a couple of games left in the MLS season, the playoff picture is relatively clear. And a large part of that clarity is just how fucked up and unfair the MLS playoff format truly is.
The continued weakness of the Eastern Conference will lead to six of the eight playoff teams coming from the Western Conference (last season, it was five of eight). In fact, if the tables were combined (as they ought to be by any measure), the first place team in the east, New York Red Bulls, would currently occupy the fourth position, behind LA, Salt Lake City and Dallas. Yet, the playoff format will have the top western teams that are arguably the best teams in the league as a whole eliminating each other in the west.
This is quite a harsh penalty for the teams with the best regular season records, LA and Salt Lake City, and even for the surging FC Dallas. As it stands right now, LA will play Seattle while the two teams with the best current form, Dallas and Salt Lake, will face off. On the other side of the bracket, New York will fly across the country to play a weak San Jose, while sagging Columbus will make a somewhat shorter trip to Colorado.
The pundits seem to be favoring FC Dallas and New York Red Bulls to go the distance, with 2009 champions Real Salt Lake as the clear number three. I've watched a fair number of MLS matches this season, and in my opinion these so-called "power rankings" are complete bullshit.
Whether the experts' darlings FC Dallas have the chops to take out Real Salt Lake in the first round and make a deep playoff run should get a hard test in the last three matches of the regular season, as Dallas must overcome playoff-bound Colorado at home this weekend, and then away matches at RSL and LA Galaxy. We'll also get a look at New York Red Bulls at home against RSL in the last match of their season, although with the playoffs looming, it's unlikely we'll see a full complement from either side.
Lost in the shuffle are last years runners-up and current points leader LA Galaxy. Most pundits currently rank them fifth (!) behind Seattle, RSL, New York and Dallas. With Beckham inching back to fitness, the Galaxy have won four of their last five matches. Bruce Arena is playing Beckham together with Juninho in the central midfield, with Landon Donovan and Edson Buddle up front. Sure, the defending has looked a bit shaky at times, but when goalkeeper Donovan Ricketts is on form and their attack is flowing, they are going to be a force, and they have the experience of having made a run to the final last year. And, with the best record in the MLS going into the playoffs (at least as of this writing), they'll get home field advantage through to the final in Toronto.
That said, it's unlikely that the best team will win the MLS Cup, and even more unlikely that the best two teams will meet in the final. And that's a problem for the league. There's a home & home aggregate goal series in the first round, so some likelihood that quality will bubble to the top -- but against that is the ludicrous seeding process, that rewards the better Eastern Conference teams with weaker opponents out of the west. After that it's one-and-done in the conference finals and the MLS Cup final, so a hot team can put four decent matches together and win the cup even from a "wild card" position, as Real Salt Lake did last season (fifth in the west; re-seeded in the east as the wildcard; upset LA Galaxy in final on penalties).
Lame.
But I'll watch anyway. I'm pulling for an LA/New York final.
The continued weakness of the Eastern Conference will lead to six of the eight playoff teams coming from the Western Conference (last season, it was five of eight). In fact, if the tables were combined (as they ought to be by any measure), the first place team in the east, New York Red Bulls, would currently occupy the fourth position, behind LA, Salt Lake City and Dallas. Yet, the playoff format will have the top western teams that are arguably the best teams in the league as a whole eliminating each other in the west.
This is quite a harsh penalty for the teams with the best regular season records, LA and Salt Lake City, and even for the surging FC Dallas. As it stands right now, LA will play Seattle while the two teams with the best current form, Dallas and Salt Lake, will face off. On the other side of the bracket, New York will fly across the country to play a weak San Jose, while sagging Columbus will make a somewhat shorter trip to Colorado.
The pundits seem to be favoring FC Dallas and New York Red Bulls to go the distance, with 2009 champions Real Salt Lake as the clear number three. I've watched a fair number of MLS matches this season, and in my opinion these so-called "power rankings" are complete bullshit.
Whether the experts' darlings FC Dallas have the chops to take out Real Salt Lake in the first round and make a deep playoff run should get a hard test in the last three matches of the regular season, as Dallas must overcome playoff-bound Colorado at home this weekend, and then away matches at RSL and LA Galaxy. We'll also get a look at New York Red Bulls at home against RSL in the last match of their season, although with the playoffs looming, it's unlikely we'll see a full complement from either side.
Lost in the shuffle are last years runners-up and current points leader LA Galaxy. Most pundits currently rank them fifth (!) behind Seattle, RSL, New York and Dallas. With Beckham inching back to fitness, the Galaxy have won four of their last five matches. Bruce Arena is playing Beckham together with Juninho in the central midfield, with Landon Donovan and Edson Buddle up front. Sure, the defending has looked a bit shaky at times, but when goalkeeper Donovan Ricketts is on form and their attack is flowing, they are going to be a force, and they have the experience of having made a run to the final last year. And, with the best record in the MLS going into the playoffs (at least as of this writing), they'll get home field advantage through to the final in Toronto.
That said, it's unlikely that the best team will win the MLS Cup, and even more unlikely that the best two teams will meet in the final. And that's a problem for the league. There's a home & home aggregate goal series in the first round, so some likelihood that quality will bubble to the top -- but against that is the ludicrous seeding process, that rewards the better Eastern Conference teams with weaker opponents out of the west. After that it's one-and-done in the conference finals and the MLS Cup final, so a hot team can put four decent matches together and win the cup even from a "wild card" position, as Real Salt Lake did last season (fifth in the west; re-seeded in the east as the wildcard; upset LA Galaxy in final on penalties).
Lame.
But I'll watch anyway. I'm pulling for an LA/New York final.
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