With only a couple of games left in the MLS season, the playoff picture is relatively clear. And a large part of that clarity is just how fucked up and unfair the MLS playoff format truly is.
The continued weakness of the Eastern Conference will lead to six of the eight playoff teams coming from the Western Conference (last season, it was five of eight). In fact, if the tables were combined (as they ought to be by any measure), the first place team in the east, New York Red Bulls, would currently occupy the fourth position, behind LA, Salt Lake City and Dallas. Yet, the playoff format will have the top western teams that are arguably the best teams in the league as a whole eliminating each other in the west.
This is quite a harsh penalty for the teams with the best regular season records, LA and Salt Lake City, and even for the surging FC Dallas. As it stands right now, LA will play Seattle while the two teams with the best current form, Dallas and Salt Lake, will face off. On the other side of the bracket, New York will fly across the country to play a weak San Jose, while sagging Columbus will make a somewhat shorter trip to Colorado.
The pundits seem to be favoring FC Dallas and New York Red Bulls to go the distance, with 2009 champions Real Salt Lake as the clear number three. I've watched a fair number of MLS matches this season, and in my opinion these so-called "power rankings" are complete bullshit.
Whether the experts' darlings FC Dallas have the chops to take out Real Salt Lake in the first round and make a deep playoff run should get a hard test in the last three matches of the regular season, as Dallas must overcome playoff-bound Colorado at home this weekend, and then away matches at RSL and LA Galaxy. We'll also get a look at New York Red Bulls at home against RSL in the last match of their season, although with the playoffs looming, it's unlikely we'll see a full complement from either side.
Lost in the shuffle are last years runners-up and current points leader LA Galaxy. Most pundits currently rank them fifth (!) behind Seattle, RSL, New York and Dallas. With Beckham inching back to fitness, the Galaxy have won four of their last five matches. Bruce Arena is playing Beckham together with Juninho in the central midfield, with Landon Donovan and Edson Buddle up front. Sure, the defending has looked a bit shaky at times, but when goalkeeper Donovan Ricketts is on form and their attack is flowing, they are going to be a force, and they have the experience of having made a run to the final last year. And, with the best record in the MLS going into the playoffs (at least as of this writing), they'll get home field advantage through to the final in Toronto.
That said, it's unlikely that the best team will win the MLS Cup, and even more unlikely that the best two teams will meet in the final. And that's a problem for the league. There's a home & home aggregate goal series in the first round, so some likelihood that quality will bubble to the top -- but against that is the ludicrous seeding process, that rewards the better Eastern Conference teams with weaker opponents out of the west. After that it's one-and-done in the conference finals and the MLS Cup final, so a hot team can put four decent matches together and win the cup even from a "wild card" position, as Real Salt Lake did last season (fifth in the west; re-seeded in the east as the wildcard; upset LA Galaxy in final on penalties).
Lame.
But I'll watch anyway. I'm pulling for an LA/New York final.
Friday, October 8, 2010
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Plate o' Shrimp
Sometimes, you see an idea and suddenly you start seeing it everywhere. Sometimes that synchronicity is so sharp, it's kind of uncanny.
While I was on vacation, I finally got around to reading a couple of books that had been sitting on my nightstand for a while. The first was a remarkable near-future science fiction novel called The Windup Girl, by Paolo Bacigalupi. This wildly imaginative and original book is set in Thailand in a future where the earth is depopulated by plagues, where food and energy are so scarce that calorie efficiency is a constant concern. Like the best speculative fiction, you finish this one with a lingering fear that this could really happen. It's an impressive first novel by Bacigalupi, well-paced and literary.
I'd been struggling for a while to get through Deleuze and Guattari's two volume Capitalism & Schizophrenia, when a friend suggested Manuel De Landa's A Thousand Years of Nonlinear History as kind of an introduction/distillation of the ideas.
It is an incredibly thought-provoking book on its own, but read immediately after Bacigalupi's, it's a revelation. De Landa offers a materialist re-interpretation of modern history as the movement, trade and governance of matter and energy that provides a philosophical Rosetta Stone for The Windup Girl's imagined world. These two books are like a great art-house double feature -- each one informs and enhances the other. Worth a look.
While I was on vacation, I finally got around to reading a couple of books that had been sitting on my nightstand for a while. The first was a remarkable near-future science fiction novel called The Windup Girl, by Paolo Bacigalupi. This wildly imaginative and original book is set in Thailand in a future where the earth is depopulated by plagues, where food and energy are so scarce that calorie efficiency is a constant concern. Like the best speculative fiction, you finish this one with a lingering fear that this could really happen. It's an impressive first novel by Bacigalupi, well-paced and literary.
I'd been struggling for a while to get through Deleuze and Guattari's two volume Capitalism & Schizophrenia, when a friend suggested Manuel De Landa's A Thousand Years of Nonlinear History as kind of an introduction/distillation of the ideas.
It is an incredibly thought-provoking book on its own, but read immediately after Bacigalupi's, it's a revelation. De Landa offers a materialist re-interpretation of modern history as the movement, trade and governance of matter and energy that provides a philosophical Rosetta Stone for The Windup Girl's imagined world. These two books are like a great art-house double feature -- each one informs and enhances the other. Worth a look.
Saturday, September 11, 2010
Fulham 2:1 Wolves
It's kind of an odd year for a Fulham supporter. After last season's magical run through the Europa League -- and believe me, as a Fulham fan it was truly magical -- there's an air of let-down about the team this year.
The crafty old codger Roy Hodgson is off to greener pastures at Liverpool. Who could fault him. He did yeoman's work at Craven Cottage, engineering the Great Escape, getting them to 7th place in the Premiership and the Europa berth, and then wiling his way through a tough Europa group stage with AS Roma and FC Basel, dusting off the holders Shaktar, then Juventus (in dramatic fashion), Wolfsburg, and Hamburg, before losing in the final (the final!) to Athletico Madrid and World Cup golden ball winner Diego Forlan, 2-1. Meanwhile, they comfortably avoided relegation concerns in the Premiership, finishing a respectable 12th. They even made it to the quarter-finals of the FA Cup, before getting bounced by Spurs in a replay.
After that embarrassment of riches for a Fulham fan, there was bound to be a Fulhamish return to planet Earth. But, after beating a nasty Wolverhampton Wanderers at home on Saturday, Fulham are 5th in the table on 6 points, and undefeated. They fought back to draw Manchester United 2-2 in a great match. They also gutted out draws away at Bolton and Blackpool. They are playing really attractive football under their new manager Mark Hughes. There's even a new swagger in the home support.
But I wouldn't be a Fulham fan if I wasn't feeling a bit fragile right now. Zamora's broken ankle is a horrible thing. He was really coming into form, having finally gotten his well deserved cap for England, and now he's out until February. There's still uncertainty whether Fulham can retain Schwartzer, Hangeland, and even Murphy. Konchesky is gone to Liverpool with Hodgson. While Hughes is trusting Dempsey more up front, while Gera and new signing Dembele look sharp, the Johnson's Eddie and Andy are no Bobby Zamora. And worst of all, they have a nightmare schedule until March/April, totally front-loaded with tough fixtures. Ugh.
Still, it feels like Fulham, particularly at home, are becoming a tough fixture themselves for the rest of the Premiership, and that's kind of cool. Great to see them continuing to develop American players like Dempsey and Johnson (and before them McBride and Bocanegra and even Seattle Sounders keeper Kasey Keller, who, by the way, had a monster penalty save midweek to deny Real Salt Lake three points away). They have two winnable fixtures away at Blackburn and Stoke coming up, and they are fun to watch -- skillful, positive. Let's see what they are made of.
The crafty old codger Roy Hodgson is off to greener pastures at Liverpool. Who could fault him. He did yeoman's work at Craven Cottage, engineering the Great Escape, getting them to 7th place in the Premiership and the Europa berth, and then wiling his way through a tough Europa group stage with AS Roma and FC Basel, dusting off the holders Shaktar, then Juventus (in dramatic fashion), Wolfsburg, and Hamburg, before losing in the final (the final!) to Athletico Madrid and World Cup golden ball winner Diego Forlan, 2-1. Meanwhile, they comfortably avoided relegation concerns in the Premiership, finishing a respectable 12th. They even made it to the quarter-finals of the FA Cup, before getting bounced by Spurs in a replay.
After that embarrassment of riches for a Fulham fan, there was bound to be a Fulhamish return to planet Earth. But, after beating a nasty Wolverhampton Wanderers at home on Saturday, Fulham are 5th in the table on 6 points, and undefeated. They fought back to draw Manchester United 2-2 in a great match. They also gutted out draws away at Bolton and Blackpool. They are playing really attractive football under their new manager Mark Hughes. There's even a new swagger in the home support.
But I wouldn't be a Fulham fan if I wasn't feeling a bit fragile right now. Zamora's broken ankle is a horrible thing. He was really coming into form, having finally gotten his well deserved cap for England, and now he's out until February. There's still uncertainty whether Fulham can retain Schwartzer, Hangeland, and even Murphy. Konchesky is gone to Liverpool with Hodgson. While Hughes is trusting Dempsey more up front, while Gera and new signing Dembele look sharp, the Johnson's Eddie and Andy are no Bobby Zamora. And worst of all, they have a nightmare schedule until March/April, totally front-loaded with tough fixtures. Ugh.
Still, it feels like Fulham, particularly at home, are becoming a tough fixture themselves for the rest of the Premiership, and that's kind of cool. Great to see them continuing to develop American players like Dempsey and Johnson (and before them McBride and Bocanegra and even Seattle Sounders keeper Kasey Keller, who, by the way, had a monster penalty save midweek to deny Real Salt Lake three points away). They have two winnable fixtures away at Blackburn and Stoke coming up, and they are fun to watch -- skillful, positive. Let's see what they are made of.
Sunday, July 11, 2010
Final Thoughts
Well, the World Cup is over and Spain are champions. Good. Balance is restored to the universe. The best team playing the best style managed to win.
The final itself kind of sucked. Holland avoided any semblance of trying to play with Spain. Instead, they must have decided that Germany lost because they were too deferential to Spain's midfield, and therefore that the proper strategy to counter that tendency was to foul like motherfuckers for the entire match. It started just 45 seconds into the match, when Van Persie raked the back of Busquets' knee with his cleat and barely avoided a yellow card; and it didn't even end when Heitinga got sent off with a second yellow for dragging Iniesta down from behind when he was through on goal in the 109th minute -- hell, they got two more after that for good measure, a total of nine (!) cards in all.
The English ref Howard Webb handed out a record 14 cards in the final, and he is going to get a lot of stick from the Dutch fans for favoring Spain. But believe me, he did a reasonably good job responding to an utterly cynical Dutch strategy, and while he missed a couple of calls both ways, he basically got it right. I was pissed that he kept slowing the game down with his constant whistles, but to Webb's credit, he really did his best to keep this 11v11 for the full 120 minutes in very difficult circumstances. He could easily have sent De Jong off after half an hour for his WWE move on Alonso; probably could have sent Van Bommel off a couple of times, and probably should have sent off the histrionic Robben, who, at one point, chased him halfway up the pitch to complain because, for once, he didn't go down when Puyol fouled him on a break and Webb let the play continue. The Brazilians must have loved that one.
Holland were just awful. But, to their credit, the brutal hacking strategy did disrupt Spain's rhythm, and, it almost -- almost -- got them the win. Had Casillas not gotten a foot on Robben's first break-away strike (as he dove the other way), had Robben taken his chance when he stayed on his feet after beating Puyol, you could have seen the Dutch steal this one 1-0. Their goalkeeper was excellent and kept them in the match. But for the fouling, they had a pretty interesting tactical response to Spain, pressuring them, interfering with passing lanes to break up Spain's short passing game, and they really neutralized Xavi. Pity they couldn't do it without eight cautions and a sending off.
Spain were not brilliant, not by any stretch. I thought they came out brightly, but lost their edge under the weight of the Dutch negativity. The early second half sub of Jesus Navas for Pedro was inspired, and he managed to get a lot more movement on the right wing. But I thought the 87th minute sub of Cesc Fabregas for Alonso won the game for Spain. He provided a Xavi Hernandez-like spark to the Spanish attack, and created at least three good chances in extra time, including Iniesta's winner.
Anyway, Spain won, and they celebrated emotionally. This is a very big deal for Spain. It was cool that they changed into their red jerseys for the cup presentation. Here are two of my favorite YouTube vids, first, Spanish TV announcer Camacho on the goal call:
And, a little cute, but a choked-up Casillas interrupting his insanely hot girlfriend's attempt to conduct a professional interview with him:
When the dust settles, and I've had a chance to reflect, I'll do a summary of the tournament. But for now, I'm really happy with the result. Espana, campeones!
The final itself kind of sucked. Holland avoided any semblance of trying to play with Spain. Instead, they must have decided that Germany lost because they were too deferential to Spain's midfield, and therefore that the proper strategy to counter that tendency was to foul like motherfuckers for the entire match. It started just 45 seconds into the match, when Van Persie raked the back of Busquets' knee with his cleat and barely avoided a yellow card; and it didn't even end when Heitinga got sent off with a second yellow for dragging Iniesta down from behind when he was through on goal in the 109th minute -- hell, they got two more after that for good measure, a total of nine (!) cards in all.
The English ref Howard Webb handed out a record 14 cards in the final, and he is going to get a lot of stick from the Dutch fans for favoring Spain. But believe me, he did a reasonably good job responding to an utterly cynical Dutch strategy, and while he missed a couple of calls both ways, he basically got it right. I was pissed that he kept slowing the game down with his constant whistles, but to Webb's credit, he really did his best to keep this 11v11 for the full 120 minutes in very difficult circumstances. He could easily have sent De Jong off after half an hour for his WWE move on Alonso; probably could have sent Van Bommel off a couple of times, and probably should have sent off the histrionic Robben, who, at one point, chased him halfway up the pitch to complain because, for once, he didn't go down when Puyol fouled him on a break and Webb let the play continue. The Brazilians must have loved that one.
Holland were just awful. But, to their credit, the brutal hacking strategy did disrupt Spain's rhythm, and, it almost -- almost -- got them the win. Had Casillas not gotten a foot on Robben's first break-away strike (as he dove the other way), had Robben taken his chance when he stayed on his feet after beating Puyol, you could have seen the Dutch steal this one 1-0. Their goalkeeper was excellent and kept them in the match. But for the fouling, they had a pretty interesting tactical response to Spain, pressuring them, interfering with passing lanes to break up Spain's short passing game, and they really neutralized Xavi. Pity they couldn't do it without eight cautions and a sending off.
Spain were not brilliant, not by any stretch. I thought they came out brightly, but lost their edge under the weight of the Dutch negativity. The early second half sub of Jesus Navas for Pedro was inspired, and he managed to get a lot more movement on the right wing. But I thought the 87th minute sub of Cesc Fabregas for Alonso won the game for Spain. He provided a Xavi Hernandez-like spark to the Spanish attack, and created at least three good chances in extra time, including Iniesta's winner.
Anyway, Spain won, and they celebrated emotionally. This is a very big deal for Spain. It was cool that they changed into their red jerseys for the cup presentation. Here are two of my favorite YouTube vids, first, Spanish TV announcer Camacho on the goal call:
And, a little cute, but a choked-up Casillas interrupting his insanely hot girlfriend's attempt to conduct a professional interview with him:
When the dust settles, and I've had a chance to reflect, I'll do a summary of the tournament. But for now, I'm really happy with the result. Espana, campeones!
Saturday, July 10, 2010
Good Reads on Eve of Final
The New York Times has a piece on the Cruyff connection.
Jonathan Wilson at The Guardian dissects the prevalence of the 4-2-3-1 formation at the World Cup, and contrasts the two examples of the formation on display in the final.
Zonal Marking has their preview of the final up (well, part one of it), and it's as thoughtful and detailed as you'd expect. Full of interesting links.
For a little homer nostalgia, here is Grant Wahl interviewing Landon Donovan on his World Cup experience. Happy to see him give props to Clint Dempsey.
And finally, Gawker's hilarious look at World Cup winners and losers.
By the way, that third place match between Uruguay and Germany was fantastic. Pity we probably won't see a game that open in the final. The lead changed three times, and Forlan almost equalized on the last tick of added time, his direct free kick striking the crossbar. His 51st minute goal, struck high on the volley, skipping off the wet grass and into the net, demonstrated his unbelievable quality at this tournament.
Jonathan Wilson at The Guardian dissects the prevalence of the 4-2-3-1 formation at the World Cup, and contrasts the two examples of the formation on display in the final.
Zonal Marking has their preview of the final up (well, part one of it), and it's as thoughtful and detailed as you'd expect. Full of interesting links.
For a little homer nostalgia, here is Grant Wahl interviewing Landon Donovan on his World Cup experience. Happy to see him give props to Clint Dempsey.
And finally, Gawker's hilarious look at World Cup winners and losers.
By the way, that third place match between Uruguay and Germany was fantastic. Pity we probably won't see a game that open in the final. The lead changed three times, and Forlan almost equalized on the last tick of added time, his direct free kick striking the crossbar. His 51st minute goal, struck high on the volley, skipping off the wet grass and into the net, demonstrated his unbelievable quality at this tournament.
Friday, July 9, 2010
The Final
While I am delighted that Spain and Holland are in the final, I'm personally a bit conflicted about who to support.
On the one hand, for familial reasons, I'm for Spain. My wife's parents -- now naturalized US citizens -- came to the US from Spain in the early '60s. My son is a big Spain supporter. I've heard so many stories about Spanish football in the '50's from my father-in-law, and we watch a lot of Barcelona and Real Madrid during the club season together. I'm going to Spain in a couple of weeks to visit the family, and it would be great if they were riding the euphoria of winning the Cup.
[Just an aside -- I was visiting the family in Tenerife in the spring of 1993. That year, Real Madrid and Barcelona were coming into the last day of the La Liga season positioned 1-2 in the table, Real Madrid 2 points ahead of Barca. Real Madrid played Tenerife away; I can't recall who Barca played. I couldn't go to the match, but I listened on the radio out on the balcony of my apartment. Tenerife surprised Madrid 2-0, denying them the title (Barcelona won their match), and further, the three points for Tenerife put them in the UEFA Cup, just pipping Athletico Madrid by a point for fifth place. It was pandemonium. The whole city exploded. They were fishing people out of fountains in Tenerife for days. Unforgettable. I went to Game 7 of the NBA Finals at the Staples Center in LA a couple of weeks ago, and was out on the streets of downtown LA after the Lakers won the title, and it didn't hold a candle to the celebration in this small, provincial town when their long-suffering team came in fifth place in La Liga.]
I picked Holland to make the final, and I have a soft spot for their swashbuckling football history. They should have won a title during the Cruyff years. They had an undefeated run through 2010 qualifying, and an undefeated run through this World Cup. I watch a lot of English football, and so I've seen a lot of Holland's World Cup squad play in England -- Van Persie at Arsenal, Kuyt at Liverpool, Robben formerly at Chelsea, Heitinga at Everton, De Jong at Man City.
Ironically, modern Spain are playing like the historical Dutch, and for good reasons. Johann Cruyff came to Barcelona as coach and implemented Dutch total football tactics, which persist today. The current Spain team is dominated by Barcelona players: Pique, Puyol, Iniesta, Xavi, Busquests, Pedro, and even new signing Villa. I've heard people joke that Barcelona are going to win the World Cup. Spain are the spiritual successors to the 70's Dutch style that revolutionized football. The current Holland team, on the other hand, are almost playing like the Germans of old -- efficient, physical, individually talented.
What can we expect on Sunday? The pundits' consensus seems to be another 1-0 win for Spain. Spain getting 60% of the possession again, wearing down the Dutch back line with their sharp tiki-taka passing game, and scoring just one goal while clamping down a weak Dutch attack.
I'm not so sure, and it kind of depends on two thing: 1) will the Dutch play the same style or will they vary their tactics?; and 2) will there be an early goal?
You have to expect the first 20 minutes are going to be very cagey and tentative. These are both pretty patient teams. If the Dutch try to replicate the strategy of Switzerland, or Paraguay, or even Germany and hang back, conceding tons of possession to Spain, trying to steal a goal, Spain will indeed beat them 1-0 or 2-0. Holland have to create some high pressure on the Spanish midfield. Germany dropped back into their half too quickly against Spain, which allowed Busquets, Ramos, and even Pique to bring the ball forward, giving Xavi, Iniesta and Pedro time to find seams in the German midfield in threatening positions. This is suicide against Spain. If you give Xavi and Iniesta space to play around the top of the area, they will kill you.
I think the Dutch have to attack early to try to get an early goal to stretch the dense-packed Spanish midfield. An early Dutch goal will totally open this match up for the good. An early Spanish goal would also open up the match, but very much in Spain's favor. I think if Spain score in the first 20 minutes, this might look like France-Brazil '98.
The Dutch can score goals. They know how to play attacking football. They put in two against Brazil and played brightly. Put in three against Uruguay, one of which, the Van Bronckhorst strike, is a candidate for goal of the tournament. They have good attacking players. Van Persie has been absent, but Kuyt has been excellent, Robben has looked good, and Sneijder has poached a bunch of goals. However, you could have said the same thing about Germany, and Spain just shut the Germans down and toyed with them like a cat in their half of play.
They key for me is Dirk Kuyt on Holland's left vs. Sergio Ramos on Spain's right. If Kuyt has to play deep to counter Ramos, the Dutch attack will be neutered. If Kuyt pins Ramos back, it will be a much different match.
The World Cup final can often be pretty dull -- teams playing not to lose, rather than to win. In '90, '94, and '02 there were no first half goals in the final. In '98 the French scored two and won 3-0 (three goals is the most scored in a final in the last five cups). In '06, it was 1-1 at the half, but there were no second half goals. This one looks like it's either going to be a super-tight 1-0 victory by Spain, or a wide open 3-2 match that either team could win. God, I hope it's the latter.
On the one hand, for familial reasons, I'm for Spain. My wife's parents -- now naturalized US citizens -- came to the US from Spain in the early '60s. My son is a big Spain supporter. I've heard so many stories about Spanish football in the '50's from my father-in-law, and we watch a lot of Barcelona and Real Madrid during the club season together. I'm going to Spain in a couple of weeks to visit the family, and it would be great if they were riding the euphoria of winning the Cup.
[Just an aside -- I was visiting the family in Tenerife in the spring of 1993. That year, Real Madrid and Barcelona were coming into the last day of the La Liga season positioned 1-2 in the table, Real Madrid 2 points ahead of Barca. Real Madrid played Tenerife away; I can't recall who Barca played. I couldn't go to the match, but I listened on the radio out on the balcony of my apartment. Tenerife surprised Madrid 2-0, denying them the title (Barcelona won their match), and further, the three points for Tenerife put them in the UEFA Cup, just pipping Athletico Madrid by a point for fifth place. It was pandemonium. The whole city exploded. They were fishing people out of fountains in Tenerife for days. Unforgettable. I went to Game 7 of the NBA Finals at the Staples Center in LA a couple of weeks ago, and was out on the streets of downtown LA after the Lakers won the title, and it didn't hold a candle to the celebration in this small, provincial town when their long-suffering team came in fifth place in La Liga.]
I picked Holland to make the final, and I have a soft spot for their swashbuckling football history. They should have won a title during the Cruyff years. They had an undefeated run through 2010 qualifying, and an undefeated run through this World Cup. I watch a lot of English football, and so I've seen a lot of Holland's World Cup squad play in England -- Van Persie at Arsenal, Kuyt at Liverpool, Robben formerly at Chelsea, Heitinga at Everton, De Jong at Man City.
Ironically, modern Spain are playing like the historical Dutch, and for good reasons. Johann Cruyff came to Barcelona as coach and implemented Dutch total football tactics, which persist today. The current Spain team is dominated by Barcelona players: Pique, Puyol, Iniesta, Xavi, Busquests, Pedro, and even new signing Villa. I've heard people joke that Barcelona are going to win the World Cup. Spain are the spiritual successors to the 70's Dutch style that revolutionized football. The current Holland team, on the other hand, are almost playing like the Germans of old -- efficient, physical, individually talented.
What can we expect on Sunday? The pundits' consensus seems to be another 1-0 win for Spain. Spain getting 60% of the possession again, wearing down the Dutch back line with their sharp tiki-taka passing game, and scoring just one goal while clamping down a weak Dutch attack.
I'm not so sure, and it kind of depends on two thing: 1) will the Dutch play the same style or will they vary their tactics?; and 2) will there be an early goal?
You have to expect the first 20 minutes are going to be very cagey and tentative. These are both pretty patient teams. If the Dutch try to replicate the strategy of Switzerland, or Paraguay, or even Germany and hang back, conceding tons of possession to Spain, trying to steal a goal, Spain will indeed beat them 1-0 or 2-0. Holland have to create some high pressure on the Spanish midfield. Germany dropped back into their half too quickly against Spain, which allowed Busquets, Ramos, and even Pique to bring the ball forward, giving Xavi, Iniesta and Pedro time to find seams in the German midfield in threatening positions. This is suicide against Spain. If you give Xavi and Iniesta space to play around the top of the area, they will kill you.
I think the Dutch have to attack early to try to get an early goal to stretch the dense-packed Spanish midfield. An early Dutch goal will totally open this match up for the good. An early Spanish goal would also open up the match, but very much in Spain's favor. I think if Spain score in the first 20 minutes, this might look like France-Brazil '98.
The Dutch can score goals. They know how to play attacking football. They put in two against Brazil and played brightly. Put in three against Uruguay, one of which, the Van Bronckhorst strike, is a candidate for goal of the tournament. They have good attacking players. Van Persie has been absent, but Kuyt has been excellent, Robben has looked good, and Sneijder has poached a bunch of goals. However, you could have said the same thing about Germany, and Spain just shut the Germans down and toyed with them like a cat in their half of play.
They key for me is Dirk Kuyt on Holland's left vs. Sergio Ramos on Spain's right. If Kuyt has to play deep to counter Ramos, the Dutch attack will be neutered. If Kuyt pins Ramos back, it will be a much different match.
The World Cup final can often be pretty dull -- teams playing not to lose, rather than to win. In '90, '94, and '02 there were no first half goals in the final. In '98 the French scored two and won 3-0 (three goals is the most scored in a final in the last five cups). In '06, it was 1-1 at the half, but there were no second half goals. This one looks like it's either going to be a super-tight 1-0 victory by Spain, or a wide open 3-2 match that either team could win. God, I hope it's the latter.
Monday, July 5, 2010
World Cup Up For Grabs?
I'm very excited about the semi-finals, because I think this World Cup hangs in the balance. There's less inevitability about these four teams than any cup I can remember. Any of these teams could win it. I'd put the Germans first on current form, fitness, and national football character; the Spaniards second on talent and guile; the Dutch third on efficiency and good luck; and the Uruguayans fourth, well, for a lot of reasons.
Germany absolutely dismembered Argentina in the quarter-finals. Crushed them. Argentina over-relied on individual dribbling and Germany just closed them down. Schweinsteiger was huge, both defending Messi et al., and coming forward. Despite what some lazy commentators have said and written, it wasn't a cliched "well-oiled German machine"; it was something much more fun to watch than that. They move off the ball incredibly well, so there is always someone in space ready to receive a pass. They create space with their pace and good ball skills. They have a number of excellent finishers. And they are really young and bright; one of the youngest teams in the tournament. They are scoring a lot of goals.
Coming into their semi-final with Spain, they are going to be without Muller, who has been awesome. They probably have multiple adequate replacements for him, but I think they will miss something psychologically and also tactically. He's been making a lot of chances in front of goal and finishing with confidence.
Spain, meanwhile, looked pretty ordinary against a tough Paraguay they barely beat. You could argue that Paraguay beat themselves, with the missed penalty, the conceded penalty, and several missed chances in front of goal. Once again, as against Portugal, they got one moment of brilliance (Xavi springs Iniesta, who finds Pedro on the right), and Villa once again gave them the slimmest of victories. They have a tactical choice to make: do they play Fabregas on the left instead of Torres, and move Villa in toward the center; or do they bring in Llorente as a straight swap for Torres? In any event, they have to get Torres out of there -- Spain have looked much better when he's out.
Germany won't have the same advantage against Spain they had against Argentina -- Spain have much better midfielders and much better wide defenders, and they pass rather than dribble. I think this comes down to some key matchups: Lahm and Ozil vs. Capdevilla and Pujols; Podolski counter-attacking on the left when Ramos comes forward; and Xavi/Iniesta vs. the German central defense.
On the other side of the bracket, the Dutch have to be very confident going into the Uruguay match. If anything, they may be vulnerable to thinking ahead to a juicy rematch of the '74 final won by the host Germans with Beckenbauer 2-1 against Johann Cruyff's total football Netherlands. Certainly, they believe they have a great shot at the final. Contrary to a lot of the punditry, I thought the Dutch played pretty well against Brazil. Brazil dominated the first half, but after the own goal (now credited to Sneijder) they fell apart and Holland threatened them multiple times. After the second goal, the Dutch dominated. Brazil's strategy of hacking Robben down backfired -- Holland got multiple free kicks and ultimately, got Melo sent off.
[There has been a hue and cry about Robben's "simulation." I think this is bullshit. He sold it when he was legitimately fouled -- he wasn't diving. This is a daily activity in the NBA. Ok, he made it seem like he was getting killed, when perhaps he was just the victim of some physical play, but it wasn't cheating. ]
That's not to say Holland are without flaws. Their back line looked really old and slow at times, and without De Jong (out on suspension) there to win balls upfield, they will be vulnerable to Forlan charging forward from his deep positioning. They still haven't fully involved involved Van Persie in the attack.
Who knows what is going on with Uruguay after that crazy quarter-final against Ghana. I didn't give a shit about either of these teams, and I was freaking out at the end of that match. The 120th minute surge by Ghana, the sending off, the missed penalty, and then the shoot-out ending on that cheeky chip. It was nuts. By the way, Suarez didn't cheat, either. He intentionally handled a ball in the box, and got sent off for it and a penalty awarded. That's the rules. Now, should he have gotten a long ban to avoid incentivizing others in the future? Absolutely. If I ran FIFA, I'd ban him for the rest of the tournament and maybe more.
Uruguay are playing much better than it looks. They are tight at the back and creative up front. I just think they are really going to miss Suarez against Holland. They need someone to complement Forlan up front. But Forlan himself is probably one of the best strikers in this tournament. He provides something that Holland doesn't really have in this tournament.
I think Germany beats Spain 2-1, but I'd actually be sad if that happened, since I don't want to see the Germans in the finals, despite how attractively they are playing. I want to see a first-time champion, and the Germans in the final complicate that possibility. Regardless, I think this is going to be a total chess-match.
I think Holland beats Uruguay 1-0. This could be a very negative match if the Dutch don't have a strong cutting edge in attack. I could see this one going to extra time. The wild card for me is that I think Uruguay are playing with the house's money at this point in the tournament -- they'd go home to a hero's welcome even if they lose. The Dutch public is smelling the cup -- a chance to reverse their historical legacy as the best team never to win a World Cup. They are under a lot more pressure. I think that will even the odds considerably for Uruguay.
Germany absolutely dismembered Argentina in the quarter-finals. Crushed them. Argentina over-relied on individual dribbling and Germany just closed them down. Schweinsteiger was huge, both defending Messi et al., and coming forward. Despite what some lazy commentators have said and written, it wasn't a cliched "well-oiled German machine"; it was something much more fun to watch than that. They move off the ball incredibly well, so there is always someone in space ready to receive a pass. They create space with their pace and good ball skills. They have a number of excellent finishers. And they are really young and bright; one of the youngest teams in the tournament. They are scoring a lot of goals.
Coming into their semi-final with Spain, they are going to be without Muller, who has been awesome. They probably have multiple adequate replacements for him, but I think they will miss something psychologically and also tactically. He's been making a lot of chances in front of goal and finishing with confidence.
Spain, meanwhile, looked pretty ordinary against a tough Paraguay they barely beat. You could argue that Paraguay beat themselves, with the missed penalty, the conceded penalty, and several missed chances in front of goal. Once again, as against Portugal, they got one moment of brilliance (Xavi springs Iniesta, who finds Pedro on the right), and Villa once again gave them the slimmest of victories. They have a tactical choice to make: do they play Fabregas on the left instead of Torres, and move Villa in toward the center; or do they bring in Llorente as a straight swap for Torres? In any event, they have to get Torres out of there -- Spain have looked much better when he's out.
Germany won't have the same advantage against Spain they had against Argentina -- Spain have much better midfielders and much better wide defenders, and they pass rather than dribble. I think this comes down to some key matchups: Lahm and Ozil vs. Capdevilla and Pujols; Podolski counter-attacking on the left when Ramos comes forward; and Xavi/Iniesta vs. the German central defense.
On the other side of the bracket, the Dutch have to be very confident going into the Uruguay match. If anything, they may be vulnerable to thinking ahead to a juicy rematch of the '74 final won by the host Germans with Beckenbauer 2-1 against Johann Cruyff's total football Netherlands. Certainly, they believe they have a great shot at the final. Contrary to a lot of the punditry, I thought the Dutch played pretty well against Brazil. Brazil dominated the first half, but after the own goal (now credited to Sneijder) they fell apart and Holland threatened them multiple times. After the second goal, the Dutch dominated. Brazil's strategy of hacking Robben down backfired -- Holland got multiple free kicks and ultimately, got Melo sent off.
[There has been a hue and cry about Robben's "simulation." I think this is bullshit. He sold it when he was legitimately fouled -- he wasn't diving. This is a daily activity in the NBA. Ok, he made it seem like he was getting killed, when perhaps he was just the victim of some physical play, but it wasn't cheating. ]
That's not to say Holland are without flaws. Their back line looked really old and slow at times, and without De Jong (out on suspension) there to win balls upfield, they will be vulnerable to Forlan charging forward from his deep positioning. They still haven't fully involved involved Van Persie in the attack.
Who knows what is going on with Uruguay after that crazy quarter-final against Ghana. I didn't give a shit about either of these teams, and I was freaking out at the end of that match. The 120th minute surge by Ghana, the sending off, the missed penalty, and then the shoot-out ending on that cheeky chip. It was nuts. By the way, Suarez didn't cheat, either. He intentionally handled a ball in the box, and got sent off for it and a penalty awarded. That's the rules. Now, should he have gotten a long ban to avoid incentivizing others in the future? Absolutely. If I ran FIFA, I'd ban him for the rest of the tournament and maybe more.
Uruguay are playing much better than it looks. They are tight at the back and creative up front. I just think they are really going to miss Suarez against Holland. They need someone to complement Forlan up front. But Forlan himself is probably one of the best strikers in this tournament. He provides something that Holland doesn't really have in this tournament.
I think Germany beats Spain 2-1, but I'd actually be sad if that happened, since I don't want to see the Germans in the finals, despite how attractively they are playing. I want to see a first-time champion, and the Germans in the final complicate that possibility. Regardless, I think this is going to be a total chess-match.
I think Holland beats Uruguay 1-0. This could be a very negative match if the Dutch don't have a strong cutting edge in attack. I could see this one going to extra time. The wild card for me is that I think Uruguay are playing with the house's money at this point in the tournament -- they'd go home to a hero's welcome even if they lose. The Dutch public is smelling the cup -- a chance to reverse their historical legacy as the best team never to win a World Cup. They are under a lot more pressure. I think that will even the odds considerably for Uruguay.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
